April 29, 2013 – Storms?

Iowa is outlined in a very nice looking “Slight Risk” from the SPC today, however I’m not too excited. Typically, I’d be happy as all get out about being off work and having a chance to finally chase some storms. Unfortunately, things don’t look to be going my away once again.

We currently have a stationary front bi-secting the state that is in the process of washing out. This front was largely responsible for driving the lone severe cell this morning that basically shot right down the Hwy 20 corridor in Northern Iowa. Though it wasn’t a big supercell, it did drop some hail up to ping pong ball size in NE IA. South of the almost front, the temps are in the 70’s with dew points climbing towards the upper 50’s. Everything looks to be coming into place this evening for some severe storms (hail and wind threat mainly) in E / SE IA. HOWEVER, we do have a nice cap (warm air aloft) moving in as well. The current short range models all hold off storm initiation until approx 10pm. Right now, a few storms look to fire near the Greenfield / Stuart, Iowa areas and moving NE towards the Cedar Falls / Waterloo areas through the early morning areas.

A stronger cold front and associated energy are forecast to drop through the state tomorrow night. IF we can overcome the cap, storms look to ignite along the front from SW IA to NE IA. Again, wind and hail will be the main threats. With the passage of this front, the rest of the week looks to be chilly and wet with a wintery (yes I said it) mix possible thurs-fri in N / NW IA. After this week, things look to warm up FINALLY and stay warmed up.

Statewide forecast for IA from the NWS:

.TODAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY NORTHEAST
THIS MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S NORTHEAST TO NEAR 80 SOUTHWEST.
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST.
LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY
LATE IN THE DAY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
HIGHS IN THE 60S NORTHWEST TO 80S SOUTHEAST.
.WEDNESDAY...CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO NEAR 60 SOUTHEAST. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S
NORTHWEST TO MID 70S SOUTHEAST.
.THURSDAY...CLOUDY. RAIN LIKELY...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW NORTH
IN THE MORNING. LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST. HIGHS IN THE
40S.
.FRIDAY...CLOUDY. RAIN LIKELY...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW NORTH IN
THE MORNING. LOWS IN THE 30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S.
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