Late Season Severe?

A rather complex and interesting weather situation is currently setting up across the Midwest, leading to the potential for severe weather across the mid section of the US, including Iowa! Iowa is no stranger to fall severe weather.  Back on 12 Nov 2005, multiple tornadoes spawned just N / NW of the Des Moines Metro area in a sleeper severe weather event.  Could today be another occurrence?

Looking quickly at the forecast models this morning, things could be promising for later this afternoon. LI’s dip to -3 / CAPE builds from anywhere from 1000 – 2000 / EHI increases, so on and so on.  Of course like many times this year, the amount of severe weather is going to depend on how fast the overnight convection can clear and bring a return to sunshine to reload the atmosphere.  Looking at the latest SAT images, things are clearing already in Western Iowa.  So today definitely looks promising.  Let’s hope today brings supercells and not the 2010 theme of HP lines of storms.

By the way, this time last year — temps were around 40 degrees, after receiving 1.1 inches of snow on 10 Oct 2009.  Hopefully the recent winter forecast holds true for Iowa… Warmer, drier winter.  After last winter’s near record snow fall, we could use a break.

Below is the National forecast and SPC Day 1 General and Torn probs. 5% Tornado probability for today.

Hmmm, think it’s time to charge those camera batteries!

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